# Confidence limits

After you've calculated the mean of a set of observations, you'd often like to give some indication of how close your estimate is likely to be to the parametric mean. One way to do this is with confidence limits, numbers at the upper and lower end of a confidence interval. Usually, 95% confidence limits are used, although you could use other values. Setting 95% confidence limits means that if you took repeated random samples from a population and calculated the mean and confidence limits for each sample, the confidence interval for 95% of your samples would include the parametric mean.

To illustrate this, here are the means and confidence intervals for 100 samples of 3 observations from a population with a parametric mean of 5. Of the 100 samples, 94 (shown with X for the mean and a thin line for the confidence interval) have the parametric mean within their 95% confidence interval, and 6 (shown with circles and thick lines) have the parametric mean outside the confidence interval.

With larger sample sizes, the 95% confidence intervals get smaller:

When you calculate the confidence limits for a single sample, it is tempting to say that "there is a 95% probability that the confidence interval includes the parametric mean." This is technically incorrect, because it implies that if you collected samples with the same confidence interval, sometimes they would include the parametric mean and sometimes they wouldn't. For example, the first sample in the figure above has confidence limits of 4.59 and 5.51. It would be incorrect to say that 95% of the time, the parametric mean for this population would lie between 4.59 and 5.51. If you took repeated samples from this same population and repeatedly got confidence limits of 4.59 and 5.51, the parametric mean (which is 5, remember) would be in this interval 100% of the time. Some statisticians don't care about the details of the definition, but others are very picky about this, so it's good to know.

### Confidence limits for measurement variables

To calculate the confidence limits for a measurement variable, multiply the standard error of the mean times the appropriate t-value. The t-value is determined by the probability (0.05 for a 95% confidence interval) and the degrees of freedom (n−1). In a spreadsheet, you could use =(STDEV(Ys)/SQRT(COUNT(Ys)))*TINV(0.05, COUNT(Ys)-1), where Ys is the range of cells containing your data. This value is added to and subtracted from the mean to get the confidence limits. Thus if the mean is 87 and the t-value times the standard error is 10.3, the confidence limits would be 76.7 to 97.3. You could also report this as "87 ±10.3 (95% confidence limits)." Both confidence limits and standard errors are reported as the "mean ± something," so always be sure to specify which you're talking about.

All of the above applies only to normally distributed measurement variables. For measurement data from a highly non-normal distribution, bootstrap techniques, which I won't talk about here, might yield better estimates of the confidence limits.

### Confidence limits for nominal variables

There is a different, more complicated formula, based on the binomial distribution, for calculating confidence limits of proportions (nominal data). Importantly, it yields confidence limits that are not symmetrical around the proportion, especially for proportions near zero or one. John Pezzullo has an easy-to-use web page for confidence intervals of a proportion. To see how it works, let's say that you've taken a sample of 20 men and found 2 colorblind and 18 non-colorblind. Go to the web page and enter 2 in the "Numerator" box and 20 in the "Denominator" box," then hit "Compute." The results for this example would be a lower confidence limit of 0.0124 and an upper confidence limit of 0.3170. You can't report the proportion of colorblind men as "0.10 ± something," instead you'd have to say "0.10, 95% confidence limits of 0.0124, 0.3170," or maybe "0.10 +0.2170/-0.0876 (95% confidence limits)."

An alternative technique for estimating the confidence limits of a proportion assumes that the sample proportions are normally distributed. This approximate technique yields symmetrical confidence limits, which for proportions near zero or one are obviously incorrect. For example, the confidence limits calculated with the normal approximation on 0.10 with a sample size of 20 are -0.03 to 0.23, which is ridiculous (you couldn't have less than zero percent of men being color-blind). It would also be incorrect to say that the confidence limits were 0 and 0.23, because you know the proportion of colorblind men in your population is greater than 0 (your sample had two colorblind men, so you know the population has at least two colorblind men). I consider confidence limits for proportions that are based on the normal approximation to be obsolete for most purposes; you should use the confidence interval based on the binomial distribution, unless the sample size is so large that it is computationally impractical. Unfortunately, you will see the confidence limits based on the normal approximation used more often than the correct, binomial confidence limits.

The formula for the 95% confidence interval using the normal approximation is p ±1.96√[p(1-p)/n], where *p* is the proportion and *n* is the sample size. Thus, for p=0.20 and n=100, the confidence interval would be ±1.96√[0.20(1-0.20)/100], or 0.20±0.078. A common rule of thumb says that it is okay to use this approximation as long as *npq* is greater than 5; my rule of thumb is to only use the normal approximation when the sample size is so large that calculating the exact binomial confidence interval makes smoke come out of your computer.

### Similar statistics

Confidence limits and standard error of the mean serve the same purpose, to express the reliability of an estimate of the mean. In some publications, vertical error bars on data points represent the standard error of the mean, while in other publications they represent 95% confidence intervals. I prefer 95% confidence intervals. When I see a graph with a bunch of points and vertical bars representing means and confidence intervals, I know that most (95%) of the vertical bars include the parametric means. When the vertical bars are standard errors of the mean, only about two-thirds of the bars are expected to include the parametric means; I have to mentally double the bars to get the approximate size of the 95% confidence interval (because t(0.05) is approximately 2 for all but very small values of n). Whichever statistic you decide to use, be sure to make it clear what the error bars on your graphs represent.

### Examples

**Measurement data:** The blacknose dace data from the central tendency web page has an arithmetic mean of 70.0, with a 95% confidence interval of 24.7. The lower confidence limit is 70.0−24.7=45.3, and the upper confidence limit is 70+24.7=94.7.

**Nominal data:** If you work with a lot of proportions, it's good to have a rough idea of confidence limits for different sample sizes, so you have an idea of how much data you'll need for a particular comparison. For proportions near 50%, the confidence intervals are roughly ±30%, 10%, 3%, and 1% for n=10, 100, 1000, and 10,000, respectively. Of course, this rough idea is no substitute for an actual power analysis.

n | proportion=0.10 | proportion=0.50 |
---|---|---|

10 | 0.0025, 0.4450 | 0.1871, 0.8129 |

100 | 0.0490, 0.1762 | 0.3983, 0.6017 |

1000 | 0.0821, 0.1203 | 0.4685, 0.5315 |

10,000 | 0.0942, 0.1060 | 0.4902, 0.5098 |

### How to calculate confidence limits

#### Spreadsheets

The descriptive statistics spreadsheet calculates 95% confidence limits of the mean for up to 1000 measurements. The confidence intervals for a binomial proportion spreadsheet calculates 95% confidence limits for nominal variables, using both the exact binomial and the normal approximation. (A corrected version of this spreadsheet was posted on Dec. 20, 2007; if you have the older version, discard it.)

#### Web pages

This web page calculates confidence intervals of the mean for up to 10,000 measurement observations. The web page for confidence intervals of a proportion handles nominal variables.

#### SAS

To get confidence limits for a measurement variable, add CIBASIC to the PROC UNIVARIATE statement, like this:

data fish; input location $ dacenumber; cards; Mill_Creek_1 76 Mill_Creek_2 102 North_Branch_Rock_Creek_1 12 North_Branch_Rock_Creek_2 39 Rock_Creek_1 55 Rock_Creek_2 93 Rock_Creek_3 98 Rock_Creek_4 53 Turkey_Branch 102 ; proc univariate data=fish cibasic; run;

The output will include the 95% confidence limits for the mean (and for the standard deviation and variance, which you would hardly ever need):

Basic Confidence Limits Assuming Normality Parameter Estimate 95% Confidence Limits Mean 70.00000 45.33665 94.66335 Std Deviation 32.08582 21.67259 61.46908 Variance 1030 469.70135 3778

This shows that the blacknose dace data have a mean of 70, with confidence limits of 45.3 to 94.7.

You can get the confidence limits for a binomial proportion using PROC FREQ. Here's the sample program from the exact binomial page:

data gus; input paw $; cards; right left right right right right left right right right ; proc freq data=gus; tables paw / binomial(p=0.5); exact binomial; run;

And here is part of the output:

Binomial Proportion for paw = left -------------------------------- Proportion 0.2000 ASE 0.1265 95% Lower Conf Limit 0.0000 95% Upper Conf Limit 0.4479 Exact Conf Limits 95% Lower Conf Limit 0.0252 95% Upper Conf Limit 0.5561

The first pair of confidence limits shown is based on the normal approximation; the second pair is the better one, based on the exact binomial calculation. Note that if you have more than two values of the nominal variable, the confidence limits will only be calculated for the value whose name is first alphabetically. For example, if the Gus data set included "left," "right," and "both" as values, SAS would only calculate the confidence limits on the proportion of "both." One clumsy way to solve this would be to run the program three times, changing the name of "left" to "aleft," then changing the name of "right" to "aright," to make each one first in one run.

### Further reading

Sokal and Rohlf, pp. 139-151 (means).

Zar, pp. 98-100 (means), 527-530 (proportions).

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This page was last revised August 26, 2009. Its address is http://udel.edu/~mcdonald/statconf.html. It may be cited as pp. 112-117 in: McDonald, J.H. 2009. Handbook of Biological Statistics (2nd ed.). Sparky House Publishing, Baltimore, Maryland.

©2009 by John H. McDonald. You can probably do what you want with this content; see the permissions page for details.